Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.043655 0.049435 0.055867 0.063587 0.072642 0.082976 0.095733
2025-12-28 0.035314 0.042604 0.051373 0.062809 0.077492 0.095930 0.121190
2026-01-04 0.029911 0.038130 0.048720 0.063613 0.084415 0.113063 0.156626
2026-01-11 0.025362 0.033949 0.045718 0.063455 0.090290 0.130725 0.199053
2026-01-18 0.021736 0.030412 0.042993 0.063230 0.096293 0.150762 0.253361
2026-01-25 0.018415 0.026776 0.039520 0.061254 0.099370 0.167706 0.310932
2026-02-01 0.015519 0.023331 0.035770 0.058120 0.099932 0.181082 0.369762
2026-02-08 0.013708 0.021315 0.033975 0.057987 0.106091 0.207865 0.473908
2026-02-15 0.012235 0.019630 0.032459 0.058086 0.112976 0.239625 0.613890
2026-02-22 0.011094 0.018341 0.031431 0.058943 0.121968 0.281036 0.817644
2026-03-01 0.010093 0.017154 0.030393 0.059592 0.130970 0.327930 1.090470
2026-03-08 0.009030 0.015706 0.028621 0.058299 0.135063 0.364452 1.374403
2026-03-15 0.007799 0.013803 0.025701 0.053919 0.130209 0.373236 1.564405
2026-03-22 0.007146 0.012940 0.024790 0.054108 0.138286 0.431412 2.110775
2026-03-29 0.006666 0.012357 0.024382 0.055484 0.150725 0.516605 3.031118
2026-04-05 0.006173 0.011684 0.023671 0.055944 0.160809 0.603085 4.255084
2026-04-12 0.005727 0.011052 0.022955 0.056246 0.170826 0.701314 6.024578
2026-04-19 0.005239 0.010269 0.021763 0.054932 0.174694 0.775287 7.971038
2026-04-26 0.004748 0.009424 0.020302 0.052498 0.173444 0.822356 9.928937
2026-05-03 0.004443 0.008962 0.019721 0.052643 0.182989 0.949769 14.479845
2026-05-10 0.004177 0.008557 0.019224 0.052949 0.193696 1.104113 21.827789
2026-05-17 0.003963 0.008251 0.018937 0.053900 0.208206 1.315912 35.500421
2026-05-24 0.003760 0.007946 0.018607 0.054639 0.222474 1.559127 59.160269